For the second year in a row, the Jazz enter the lottery with top-five odds to grab the No. 1 overall pick. Still, franchise history hasn’t exactly been kind to them. Utah has never moved up in the lottery with its own selection and has never won the top pick outright.
But this season feels a little different.
Big Opportunity for Utah
The Jazz currently hold an 11.5% chance to land the No. 1 pick, tied with the Sacramento Kings for the fourth-best odds in the lottery.
A few key things working in Utah’s favor:
- 45.1% chance to stay inside the top four
- Guaranteed to pick no lower than eighth
- No risk of losing their first-round selection to the Oklahoma City Thunder
That last part matters a lot.
If Utah had slipped lower in the standings or lost the coin flip against Sacramento, there was a small chance the Thunder could’ve ended up with the Jazz pick because of previous draft protections. Instead, Utah secured the fourth-best lottery position and kept control of its future.
The Most Likely Draft Result
Even with solid odds near the top, the most realistic outcome for the Jazz is still the No. 6 pick. That scenario carries a 27.1% probability.
Dropping a couple of spots obviously wouldn’t be ideal, especially for a team hoping to land a franchise-changing player. Still, there’s a silver lining:
- Falling to sixth is more likely than sliding all the way to seventh or eighth combined
- Utah remains in position to draft a high-level prospect either way
And with this incoming class viewed as one of the stronger groups in recent years, even pick No. 6 could still bring major value.
Could History Finally Change?
The Jazz finished near the bottom of the NBA standings, won the critical tiebreaker over Sacramento, and now sit in a position where one lucky bounce could completely reshape the franchise.
If Utah jumps to No. 1, it would mark the first time in team history they’ve ever earned the top overall pick.
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on Sunday, May 10, at 1 p.m. MT, and it could become one of the biggest moments of the Jazz offseason before the draft arrives in June.
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