China’s Claim as the Next Global Superpower? Not So Fast.
When Israel and Iran exchanged fire in June, it highlighted something that might surprise many: China, often talked about as the world’s rising superpower, isn’t quite ready to step into the spotlight as a global peacemaker or powerbroker—at least not in the Middle East.
You’d think Beijing, given its deepening ties across the region, would jump in to cool tensions, especially since this area supplies more than half of China’s oil imports. But despite courting countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE with open arms and big promises, China stayed mostly on the sidelines during the clash between Israel and Iran.
So, why didn’t China step up? Let’s unpack that.
Beijing’s Half-Hearted Peace Pitch
In mid-June, Chinese President Xi Jinping floated a four-point plan aimed at ending the fighting—calling for a cease-fire, negotiations on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and offering China as a “constructive role” in brokering peace. Sounds promising, right?
But here’s the kicker: it went nowhere. Xi couldn’t get Israel or Iran to the negotiating table. Israel, in particular, wasn’t buying what China was selling. Their relationship has always been a bit chilly, and tensions worsened when Beijing took a pro-Hamas stance after the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians.
China’s Shaky Ties with Israel
Despite Israel’s recent military gains, China has tried to smooth things over. Foreign Minister Wang Yi opened lines of communication with Israeli officials, expressing readiness to “resume exchanges in all aspects as soon as possible.” However, Israel remains wary. Why? Because of China’s cozy relationship with Tehran.
In recent years, China has helped Iran dodge U.S.-led sanctions and offered a diplomatic umbrella, welcoming Iran into major international groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization alongside Russia and India. Plus, China buys almost all of Iran’s oil exports, keeping the Iranian economy afloat.
But It’s Complicated: China and Iran Aren’t That Tight
You might expect that with all these ties, China would have significant sway over Iran—and they do, to an extent. China nudged Iran toward the 2015 nuclear deal under Obama and helped broker a 2023 détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Still, the relationship isn’t as ironclad as it looks. Back in 2021, China pledged a whopping $400 billion investment in Iran over 25 years, but progress has been painfully slow. By the end of 2023, Chinese direct investments in Iran barely hit $4 billion. That’s a fraction of what was promised.
Why? U.S. sanctions scare off Chinese companies, especially after Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou’s detention in Canada on charges linked to sanctions violations sent a stark warning. China also buys Iranian oil at deep discounts, arguably exploiting Iran’s weak position rather than fully supporting it. To hedge their bets, Iran keeps a strong relationship with India, China’s big rival in the developing world.
China’s Limitations in the Middle East Aren’t Just Economic
Iran knows China can’t shield it from the U.S. or Israel. Trade with China doesn’t replace real relief from Western sanctions, and Beijing isn’t about to pressure Washington to lift them. Military muscle? China is building its forces but can’t project power all the way to the Middle East. And frankly, it probably doesn’t want to.
China doesn’t do alliances and mutual defense pacts the way the U.S. does. It avoids getting tangled in security commitments. Yun Sun, a senior fellow specializing in Chinese foreign policy, sums it up: “China is not trying to be the security provider in the Middle East, and honestly, no one has asked China to.”
Russia vs. China: Who’s Closer to Iran?
When it comes to security partnerships, China’s role is pretty limited. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has mostly offered diplomatic support during the Israel-Iran conflict. Mohammed Baharoon, director general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, puts it bluntly: “If we are talking about a security situation like the war, Russia has a closer relationship with Iran than China.”
Why China’s Distance May Actually Help Stability
For many in the Middle East, China’s hands-off stance isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s not adding fuel to the fire in the Israel-Iran conflict. However, it also means China isn’t positioned to challenge the U.S. or act as a counterbalance in the region.
Gulf states are eager to do more business with China, sure, but their diplomatic and economic ties with the U.S. remain top priority. Case in point: former President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to the Gulf, where regional royals lavished him with attention—something that speaks volumes about who really calls the shots. Jonathan Fulton, an expert on Chinese policy in the Middle East, notes, “Right now, there is really only one country that leads politically, strategically, diplomatically, and economically in the region, and that’s the U.S.”
China’s Global Power Play: Overhyped or Under-Delivered?
This dynamic plays out not only in the Middle East but globally. Take Xi’s attempt to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict: his obvious favoritism toward Russia undercut any real credibility as a peace broker.
The same thing happened during the Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023. Beijing’s pro-Palestinian bias made its calls for a cease-fire less impactful. It was the U.S. that led the persistent diplomacy that finally secured a truce.
In both cases, Xi used these crises to serve China’s interests—deepening ties with a cornered Vladimir Putin and scoring points among countries in the global South by criticizing U.S. support for Israel.
The Real Picture: China’s Role in World Affairs Today
The so-called authoritarian axis—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—is far from a tightly knit group. China’s economic clout hasn’t yet translated into the political and military dominance many expected.
The fact is, Chinese leaders haven’t yet demonstrated the diplomatic finesse, military might, or political will to dethrone America as the world’s top power.
If China hopes to get there, it needs more than just money and muscle. It needs a bold new vision of its place on the world stage.
Key Takeaways
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China’s Middle East influence is limited and cautious, especially when security is involved.
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Despite deep economic ties with Iran, China can’t or won’t shield it from U.S. pressure.
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Beijing’s efforts at mediation often falter due to perceived biases and lack of trust from other key players.
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The U.S. remains the dominant diplomatic, strategic, and economic power in the Middle East.
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China’s global ambitions are slowed by its own cautious approach and uneven alliances.
So while China’s rise is real and impressive economically, when it comes to stepping into the role of global superpower—especially as a peacekeeper or security provider in tricky regions like the Middle East—it’s not quite there yet. And with Washington still holding most of the cards, Beijing’s moment in the sun may need a little more time to come.
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