In a significant move, China’s leader Xi Jinping has called for a swift acceleration in the development of the country's strategic deterrence forces, amidst rising tensions with the United States. This directive comes as Beijing demands substantial "nuclear concessions" from Washington. This strategic shift underscores China's focus on strengthening its nuclear capabilities, reflecting a broader trend of intensifying military and geopolitical competition.
On July 18, during its third plenary session in Beijing, China's Central Committee of the Communist Party passed a resolution aimed at "further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernization." This resolution, which was fully released on Sunday, outlines major policy directions and initiatives for the country's future development. According to the party's constitution, the Central Committee holds the authority to make pivotal decisions on national policies, manage the party's operations, and represent the party in international matters when the National Congress is not in session.
Xi Jinping has been steering China's political and military landscape since 2012, serving as the General Secretary of the Communist Party, the President of China, and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission—the highest national defense body in China. His leadership has been marked by a strategic emphasis on bolstering China's military and technological capabilities.
The resolution touches on several key areas, including the reform of joint operations systems and the enhancement of new-domain forces with cutting-edge combat capabilities. Notably, it briefly addresses the acceleration of nuclear force development. This mention highlights Beijing's strategic focus on expanding its nuclear arsenal and improving its deterrence capabilities.
Despite China's advancements, the specifics of its nuclear arsenal remain shrouded in secrecy. A recent U.S. Defense Department report estimated that China currently possesses over 500 nuclear warheads and is on track to have more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. This rapid expansion is part of a broader strategy to enhance China’s nuclear triad, which includes land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers.
Each component of this nuclear triad plays a crucial role in China’s deterrence strategy. Land-based missiles offer rapid deployment and targeting capabilities, submarine-launched missiles provide stealth and mobility, and strategic bombers offer flexible and diverse nuclear options. The intricate balance and functionality of these elements are central to China’s nuclear posture.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China may have recently deployed 24 nuclear warheads with launchers for the first time. This development indicates a notable advancement in China’s nuclear capabilities and its strategic posture.
In comparison, the United States had 3,748 warheads in its nuclear stockpile as of September 2023, including both operational and non-operational warheads. The U.S. military is currently modernizing and upgrading its aging nuclear triad in response to increasing foreign nuclear threats. This modernization effort highlights the ongoing competition and strategic rivalry between major nuclear powers.
China has also reiterated its nuclear demands to the U.S. during recent discussions at the Preparatory Committee for the 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), held in Geneva, Switzerland. As signatories to the treaty, both China and the U.S. are bound by its stipulations, which aim to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament.
Sun Xiaobo, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control under China's Foreign Ministry, has urged the U.S. to abandon its nuclear sharing and extended deterrence arrangements with NATO and Asian allies. He emphasized that the two largest nuclear arsenals—implicitly referring to the U.S. and Russia—must uphold their special and primary responsibilities for nuclear disarmament.
SIPRI’s estimates suggest that Russia maintains approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads as of January. China has indicated that it will not join the nuclear disarmament process unconditionally unless the U.S. and Russia make substantial, verifiable, and legally binding reductions in their nuclear arsenals. Sun’s comments reflect Beijing’s stance that significant disarmament should be a reciprocal process among the major nuclear powers.
Moreover, Sun proposed that the five recognized nuclear-weapon states—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—negotiate a treaty or issue a political statement on a "mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons." China has long advocated for this policy, claiming a commitment to not be the first to use nuclear weapons. However, the practical implications and feasibility of such a treaty remain contentious.
The U.S. has expressed concerns about China’s nuclear proposals. Bruce Turner, Senior Bureau Official for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, questioned how a proposed no-first-use treaty would function in practice. He pointed out that China's "rapid and opaque" nuclear buildup raises uncertainties about the sincerity and transparency of its no-first-use policy.
In summary, the rapid advancements in China's nuclear capabilities and its demands for significant concessions from the U.S. reflect a shifting global security landscape. The interplay between these major powers and their respective nuclear policies will likely shape future international relations and defense strategies. As both nations navigate these complex dynamics, the broader implications for global security and arms control remain a critical area of concern.
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