In one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested House races of this election cycle, initial election results show Rep. Michelle Steel and attorney Derek Tran locked in a nail-biting battle for California’s 45th congressional district. Polls closed Tuesday night at 8 p.m., and the first vote tallies were released shortly after, revealing that Tran was slightly ahead of Steel. The race, already expected to be a tough one, is now turning into a high-stakes showdown, as both candidates push hard for the crucial seat.
This district has been the scene of intense political rivalry, with Democrats holding a slight voter registration advantage going into Election Day. However, Steel, seeking her third term, has faced fierce competition from Tran, who is aiming to become the first Vietnamese American to represent this district, which is home to Little Saigon. Throughout the campaign, both sides have traded accusations of racism—Steel, a pioneering Korean American woman in Congress, and Tran, whose campaign has sparked concerns over red-baiting, a tactic often used to label opponents as "un-American" or communist sympathizers.
This race has become a microcosm of the broader battle for control of the U.S. House, with heavy hitters from both parties stepping into the fray. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and former Democratic President Bill Clinton have both made high-profile visits to Southern California to rally their respective supporters. The intense national attention underscores how vital this race is to the outcome of the 2024 election cycle. It’s one of the many Southern California districts that both parties view as crucial in deciding which party controls the House.
Other key races in the region include the 47th and 49th congressional districts, both of which are shaping up to be close contests. In CA-47, former Assemblymember Scott Baugh is facing off against state Senator Dave Min, while the 49th features Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, battling against Republican Matt Gunderson. Both districts span Orange and San Diego counties, adding another layer of complexity to the fight for House control.
Let’s take a closer look at the early results and trends shaping these races in Orange County, where much of the political action is unfolding:
CA-38 Congressional District: Rep. Linda Sánchez vs. Eric Ching
In the race for California’s 38th congressional district, incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez appears to be on track for re-election, based on early returns. Sánchez, a labor attorney by trade, has represented the district since 2002 and is the first Latina to serve on the House Ways and Means Committee. Raised in Orange County by immigrant parents from Mexico, Sánchez has been a vocal advocate for issues such as healthcare, workers' rights, and economic justice. She has made history multiple times throughout her career, becoming the first woman to lead the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm and playing a significant role in increasing Latino representation in Congress.
Sánchez is facing a challenge from Eric Ching, a businessman with deep ties to the local community. Ching has served on the Walnut City Council and has multiple stints as the city’s mayor under his belt. His background is rooted in telecommunications and technology, and he’s using this expertise to make a case for a more business-friendly approach in Washington. Early numbers show that Democrats have a strong voter registration advantage in this district, but Ching’s presence as a local business leader could help him close the gap.
CA-40 Congressional District: Rep. Young Kim vs. Joe Kerr
The race for California’s 40th congressional district is proving to be another closely watched contest. Early returns show Rep. Young Kim, a Republican, with a slight lead over Democrat Joe Kerr. Kim, who unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2020, is working hard to defend her seat in a district that spans parts of western San Bernardino, Riverside, and eastern Orange counties.
Kim made history when she flipped the seat from blue to red, making her one of the few Republicans to win a district that voted for a Democratic president. Her win was seen as a significant victory for Republicans, and she has worked to solidify her support base by championing issues like tax cuts, deregulation, and support for law enforcement. On the other side, Joe Kerr brings decades of experience as a firefighter and labor leader, having served as a captain with the Orange County Fire Authority for 34 years. Kerr’s campaign emphasizes his experience as a crisis responder and his dedication to serving the community.
With Republicans holding a voter registration advantage in this district, Kim’s seat is considered a critical one for her party’s chances to retain control of the House.
CA-46 Congressional District: Rep. Lou Correa vs. David Pan
In the 46th congressional district, early results show Rep. Lou Correa holding a strong lead over UC Irvine Professor David Pan. This district, which includes parts of Anaheim, Fullerton, and Santa Ana, has been considered a relatively safe seat for Democrats. Correa, a long-time representative, has deep roots in the area, having grown up in Anaheim public schools. Since his first election to Congress in 2017, Correa has worked on several important issues, including gun violence prevention and fiscal responsibility, as a member of the Blue Dogs Coalition.
His opponent, David Pan, is a Republican who has spent his career in academia and consulting. Pan’s decision to run for office came after years of teaching German at UC Irvine and working with the McKinsey & Company consulting firm. While Pan’s campaign has garnered attention for its focus on education reform and fiscal policy, early voting trends indicate that Correa has a commanding lead in this district, where Democrats hold a strong voter registration advantage.
CA-49 Congressional District: Rep. Mike Levin vs. Matt Gunderson
In the race for California’s 49th congressional district, early election returns show Rep. Mike Levin with a lead over Republican challenger Matt Gunderson. This district, which spans both Orange and San Diego counties, is a key battleground in the fight for control of the House. Democrats have a voter registration edge in the district, which includes Camp Pendleton, home to a major U.S. Marine Corps base.
Levin, who was first elected to Congress in 2018, has built a reputation as a champion for veterans and military families. He serves on the House Veterans Affairs Committee and has worked hard to secure resources for servicemembers. On the other hand, Gunderson, a businessman from Wisconsin, has previously run for state office and brings a background in running auto dealerships in Orange County. While he has a strong personal narrative and local ties, Levin’s lead in the early returns reflects the Democratic dominance of the district.
Closing Thoughts
With such high stakes for both parties, all eyes are on California’s competitive congressional races as the state’s voters head to the polls. From the tight race between Michelle Steel and Derek Tran in the 45th district to the early leads by Democrats in districts like the 46th and 49th, these races will likely play a critical role in determining the balance of power in Congress next year. Whether you're in Orange County or beyond, the 2024 election cycle promises to be one of the most exciting and pivotal in recent memory.
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