In a stunning political shift, former President Donald Trump leveraged economic dissatisfaction and broadened his appeal to a wider swath of voters, defying the odds and overturning long-standing trends in the 2024 presidential election. With his unique brand of politics and a message that resonated with disillusioned Americans, Trump staged a remarkable comeback, sending shockwaves through the political landscape.
By early Wednesday morning, ABC News had yet to announce a winner, but Trump’s performance had already shattered expectations. One of the most striking aspects of this election was the dramatic shift among Hispanic voters, a demographic that had long been considered a solidly Democratic stronghold. For the first time since exit polling began in 1976, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump among Hispanic voters was razor-thin—53% to 45%, with Harris barely holding on to a narrow win. In 2020, President Joe Biden had secured a decisive 33-point margin among Hispanic voters, a stark contrast to the nearly 10-point swing in Trump's favor this time around.
Trump’s gains were especially pronounced among Hispanic men, who broke for him by a remarkable 10-point margin. This was a significant turnaround from 2020, when Trump lost them by 23 points. Given the nation’s increasingly diverse population, Republican competitiveness among Hispanic voters could signal a seismic shift in U.S. politics—a realignment that could reshape future elections.
Interestingly, this year saw a slight decline in the overall racial and ethnic diversity of the electorate. For the first time since 1996, the share of minority voters did not increase, even by a small margin. Minorities accounted for just 29% of the electorate, a decrease from 33% in 2020, while the percentage of white voters rose to 71%, a 4-point increase. This shift was particularly noticeable among white voters without a college degree, who made up a larger share of the electorate and were more likely to support Trump. This group, which was more economically vulnerable, had felt the brunt of economic hardships under the Biden administration, and they rallied behind Trump’s populist message.
Trump’s support among white voters overall stood at 55%, compared to Harris’ 45%. However, the most significant break from tradition was the narrowing of the gender gap. Historically, women have been a key demographic for Democrats, but in 2024, Harris only narrowly won women by 54% to 44%, with Trump winning men by an identical margin. This 20-point gender gap was consistent with past elections, but what was particularly notable was that Harris’ support from women had dropped by 4 points compared to Biden’s performance in 2020.
Another major shift was seen among first-time voters. Trump saw a surge in support from this group, doubling his numbers compared to 2020. While first-time voters still leaned toward Harris, the 54-45% margin was a far cry from Biden’s 64-32% lead over Trump four years ago. This growing disillusionment among new voters with the Democratic Party was a telling sign of Trump’s expanding appeal.
The divide between college-educated and non-college-educated voters also became more pronounced in 2024. Harris did well among college-educated voters, much like Biden did in 2020, but Trump saw a notable improvement among non-college-educated voters, who were more likely to feel financially strained under the current administration. A striking 53% of non-college voters reported that they were worse off financially under Biden’s presidency, while just 33% of college-educated voters felt the same. This economic anxiety proved to be a powerful force driving many working-class voters toward Trump.
While Harris did manage to win independent voters overall, 50% to 45%, the margin was narrower than expected. Independents have historically been a crucial swing group, and their tendency to align with the winning candidate made their support all the more significant. Harris’ ability to win independents was a bright spot for her campaign, but it was far from a landslide.
When it came to the economy, Trump’s message resonated deeply with voters. A record 45% of those surveyed in exit polls said they had gotten worse off financially under the current administration, the highest level of discontent since the Great Recession in 2008. This sentiment was exacerbated by Biden’s low approval rating, which stood at a dismal 40%, with 58% disapproving of his handling of the country. This was the lowest approval rating for an incumbent president since George W. Bush left office in 2008. While Harris managed to stave off the worst of the backlash, she was still far from popular, especially when it came to economic issues.
Trump’s economic message was particularly potent in several key battleground states, where his appeal to voters frustrated with their financial situation helped him make significant inroads. Let’s break down some of the pivotal results from the battleground states that determined the outcome of the election.
In Arizona, Biden had narrowly won in 2020 thanks to a surge of college-educated white voters and an increasing number of independents. However, in 2024, Trump made up ground among both groups. Harris managed to hold onto college-educated white voters, winning them 53-45%, but Trump made significant gains with independents, winning them by a 49-45% margin. The pivotal Maricopa County, which accounts for nearly 60% of the state’s electorate, saw a dramatic shift, with Trump winning the county 50-47%, a reversal of Biden’s slim victory in 2020.
In Georgia, Trump’s appeal to independents was key. Independents swung toward Trump by 11 points, from Biden’s 9-point lead in 2020 to Trump’s 54-43% advantage this year. Trump also made significant strides with white voters with college degrees, winning them by 30 points, a huge leap from his 12-point loss in 2020. These gains helped Trump overcome Harris’ victory with moderates and secure a crucial win in the state.
Michigan, another key battleground, saw a dramatic shift among younger voters. In 2020, Biden had a 24-point advantage among voters under 30, but in 2024, Trump won them 51-46%. This was a sharp reversal of the trend seen just four years ago, indicating a growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party among younger voters. The share of voters identifying as Democrats also fell, dropping by 6 points to just 32%, the lowest level since 1984.
Nevada, long considered a blue state, saw Trump make unexpected gains. He divided the Hispanic vote evenly with Harris, a sharp contrast to the decisive Democratic advantage seen in previous years. While Harris still won Washoe County by 15 points, Trump’s performance in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, was remarkable. He split the vote 49-48%, his best showing in the state since 2004.
North Carolina was another state where Trump capitalized on economic discontent. Voters who rated the national economy negatively overwhelmingly supported Trump, giving him a 46-point advantage over Harris. This was especially significant among voters of color, who made up a third of the electorate and supported Trump by 26 points after expressing dissatisfaction with the economic situation under Biden.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s strength among non-college voters was clear. While Harris led among college-educated voters, Trump won non-college voters by a decisive 57-41% margin. The gender gap also widened, with women supporting Harris by 55-43% and men backing Trump by 57-41%.
Finally, in Wisconsin, Harris lost ground with younger voters, who were crucial to Biden’s success in 2020. Trump essentially broke even with them, winning 50-48%, a stark contrast to Biden’s 59-36% victory among this group just four years ago. Harris did well among college-educated voters, but Trump’s surge in support among non-college voters kept the race tight.
As we look back on this historic election, one thing is clear: Trump’s ability to tap into economic frustration, broaden his appeal to new voter groups, and push back against long-standing political trends has reshaped the American political landscape. Whether this represents a new era of Republican dominance or a fleeting moment in the political cycle remains to be seen, but the 2024 election has undoubtedly marked a pivotal moment in U.S. politics.
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