The Boston Red Sox (37-35) are squaring off against the Toronto Blue Jays (35-36) in the first of a three-game series at the Rogers Centre, with the opening pitch slated for 7:07 p.m. ET this Monday. Let’s break down the matchup, analyze the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, and provide some expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets available.
Recent Performances
On Sunday, the Red Sox triumphed over the New York Yankees with a 9-3 victory, covering as a +125 home underdog. Boston’s offensive surge came late, with five runs scored in the 7th and 8th innings, sealing the deal after leading 4-3. This win marked their second consecutive victory.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays edged out a win against the Cleveland Guardians, 7-6, as -112 home favorites. Right-hander Jose Berrios earned the win with a solid performance: 6 innings pitched, allowing 4 earned runs on 8 hits, with 0 walks and 1 strikeout. Toronto, like Boston, comes into this series with back-to-back wins.
Matchup Breakdown
Projected Starters:
- Red Sox: RHP Nick Pivetta (3-4, 3.88 ERA)
- Blue Jays: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 3.26 ERA)
Nick Pivetta is making his 10th start of the season. He boasts a 1.08 WHIP with 2.5 walks per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 10.7 per nine innings over 46 1/3 innings pitched. His last outing resulted in a no-decision against the Phillies, where he pitched 4 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 6 hits, 4 walks, and struck out 4. Historically against Toronto, Pivetta has struggled with a 2-4 record and a 5.35 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts).
Yusei Kikuchi will be taking the mound for his 15th start of the season. He carries a 1.23 WHIP, with 2.2 walks per nine innings and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings over 77 1/3 innings pitched. In his previous start, Kikuchi delivered a stellar performance, pitching 5 scoreless innings with 3 hits, 4 walks, and 5 strikeouts against Milwaukee. Against Boston, Kikuchi has a career record of 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA in 7 appearances (5 starts).
Odds and Betting Lines
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +105 | Blue Jays -130
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Expert Picks and Predictions
Prediction: Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
Lean Blue Jays (-130)
Toronto has been solid at home, winning 3 of their last 4 home games, and they’ve managed to best Boston in their last six meetings. Though the Red Sox have been in good form, winning 4 of their last 5 and holding a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, the lean here is towards the Blue Jays given their recent head-to-head dominance and home advantage.
Run Line
The Red Sox as +1.5 (-190) underdogs seem likely to cover, but the line is considered too risky for a confident bet. Instead, focusing on the moneyline or the total offers better value.
Over/Under
Bet Under 8 (-115)
Recent trends suggest leaning towards the under. The total has gone under in 2 of Toronto’s last 3 games and holds a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games. For Boston, the under has hit 34 times this season. Notably, the under has also prevailed in the last three meetings between these teams and in 4 of the last 6 games played in Toronto. However, it’s important to note that Boston’s last 10 games have seen the over hit 7 times.
Additional Insights
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More MLB Picks and Predictions: If you’re looking for more action, check out our picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup and others at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Conclusion
As the Red Sox and Blue Jays gear up for their first clash of the season, both teams are riding the momentum of recent victories. With intriguing pitching matchups and competitive odds, this series opener promises excitement for fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re leaning towards the moneyline, run line, or the over/under, there's plenty of action to consider. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to enhance your viewing experience with informed bets and expert analysis. Follow @payton_shanks and SportsbookWire on Twitter/X for the latest updates and tips. Enjoy the game!
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