Why the Sixers' Pursuit of Paul George is a Risk Worth Taking

The case for offering Paul George a four-year, $216 million-plus contract is multifaceted.

It’s compelling. It’s sensible. It’s rational.

And yet, it’s tough for me to wrap my head around it.

But I’m coming around.

When the Sixers initially floated the idea of targeting George this offseason, my reaction mirrored that of many fans.

Seriously? After enduring James Harden’s two lackluster postseasons and his dramatic exit, were the Sixers truly ready to hinge the future of the Joel Embiid era on another aging superstar with a history of unreliability? A superstar who’s missed more games than Embiid in the past five seasons? A superstar who’s appeared in just six playoff games over the last three years?

For George to even consider signing with the Sixers, the Clippers would have to refuse to give him the four-year, $221 million contract he’s eligible for. If the Clippers, who’ve had a front-row seat to George’s performance for five years and are in win-now mode with a new arena and the league’s wealthiest owner, don’t find it prudent to pay him $50 million annually through his 37th birthday, how could it possibly make sense for the Sixers?

I’ve spent the past few weeks discussing this with various people, including several insiders familiar with the Sixers’ plans. The more I listened and thought it through, the more logical the argument became.

Here’s how it breaks down:

1. Star Power Necessity: The Sixers need a player of Paul George’s caliber to even think about contending like the Celtics. Without a star, they can’t compete at that level.

2. Age and Performance Risks: While George’s performance may decline as he ages, the odds of him maintaining his level of play at 34 are better than any other free agent or trade option. Essentially, their chances with George are higher than with anyone else.

3. Future Rebuilding Phase: Regardless of whether they sign George or a mix of other players, the Sixers are likely to face a rebuild within the next four years. As long as Embiid is healthy and paired with Tyrese Maxey, the team can stay competitive. But if Embiid falters, having George or a younger, less impactful player won’t matter; they’ll be a lottery team either way.

4. Value of the Investment: Paying a 34-year-old George $50 million could be seen as a better gamble than spending the same on less impactful players. The worst-case scenario of signing George is offset by the fact that Plan B (signing other players) is unlikely to yield a title-winning team.

5. Strategic Decision: The best move is to sign George and hope for the best. If it doesn’t work out, the Sixers would end up in the same position as if they had signed someone else—without a title.

The rationale makes sense. After examining the free-agent market, it’s clear that there isn’t a viable Plan B that would significantly improve the team over last year. Take Malik Monk, for instance. There’s a good chance his contract could become a liability immediately. At 26, Monk could potentially develop beyond his role as a dynamic sixth man, but he could also become another Tobias Harris: a good player but not good enough, and overpaid to the point of being a competitive disadvantage.

My biggest skepticism lies in George’s interest in the Sixers. His appearance with Embiid on NBA Countdown felt too staged to draw any solid conclusions. The most likely outcome is still George using this as leverage to get what he wants from the Clippers. Like the Sixers, L.A. doesn’t have many other options.

The Sixers are aware of this. While signing George is their ideal scenario, the key factors are out of their control and likely to work against them. It will be intriguing to see what they have in mind as their next-best alternative. The worst-case scenario is a fun, interesting team with a solid shot at contending for a title in 2024-25, much like any other team they’ve had (aside from the Jimmy Butler year). Plus, they retain the flexibility to make another big move if the opportunity arises.

But if George is genuinely open to heading East?

Consider the implications:

• Revitalized Fan Base: George’s arrival could electrify the Sixers’ fan base, injecting new hope and excitement into the team’s prospects.
• Media Attention: Bringing in a superstar like George would draw significant media attention, potentially boosting the team’s profile and marketability.
• On-Court Chemistry: If George and Embiid click, the Sixers could have a formidable duo capable of challenging any team in the league.

The Mavericks have shown that continuity can be crucial, but the Sixers need more than just consistency—they need star power. Even with the risks, adding a player of George’s caliber could be the game-changer the Sixers need to elevate their game.

In conclusion, the Sixers’ pursuit of Paul George is a calculated risk, but one that could pay off significantly. By signing George, they are making a bold statement about their commitment to contending for a championship now. Even if it doesn’t work out as planned, they’re likely no worse off than if they pursued another path. It’s a high-stakes gamble, but in the world of professional sports, sometimes the biggest risks yield the greatest rewards. And if George really is willing to join forces with Embiid in Philly, the Sixers might just have found their missing piece.