Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party Faces Defeat in English By-Elections: Analysis

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In two English districts, voters dealt blows to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party by electing opposition-party lawmakers in seats held by the Conservatives for years. Labour Party candidate Damien Egan secured the House of Commons seat of Kingswood in southwest England, while Labour's Gen Kitchen won Wellingborough in the country's center. These seats were previously won by the Conservatives by large margins in the 2019 national election, but Thursday's special elections saw their support collapse.

These results may deepen concerns among Conservatives, as they face the prospect of potential defeat in the upcoming national election, scheduled to take place in less than a year. Opinion polls consistently show the Tories trailing behind the left-of-center Labour by between 10 and 20 points. The hard-right Reform U.K., formerly known as the Brexit Party, added to the pressure on the Conservatives by coming in third in the elections.

The by-elections were held to fill seats vacated by two lawmakers who left abruptly. Chris Skidmore resigned from the Kingswood seat last month to protest Sunak's perceived lack of commitment to green energy, while Peter Bone, a long-serving legislator in Wellingborough, was ousted over allegations of bullying and sexual misconduct. These outcomes mark the Conservatives' 10th by-election loss since the last general election, the most of any administration since the 1960s.

Despite Sunak's efforts to bring stability as the fifth Conservative leader since 2016, he has struggled to boost the party's popularity. The Conservatives have been in power nationally since 2010, facing challenges including austerity measures after the global banking crisis, the divisive decision to leave the European Union, a global pandemic, and a European war that has triggered the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.