The story of Trump and Kim’s relationship began on a tense note. Early in Trump’s first term, the two leaders exchanged fiery rhetoric, with Kim threatening nuclear annihilation and Trump responding with similar threats. The world watched as tensions reached unprecedented levels, raising fears of a potential nuclear conflict. However, in an unexpected turn of events, the two leaders moved from confrontation to dialogue. They held three landmark summits between 2018 and 2019—in Singapore, Hanoi, and at the border between North and South Korea.
"We would’ve had a nuclear war with millions of people killed," Trump reflected on Fox News just last month, recalling the perilous early days of his presidency. He continued, "And when I was in there, I got along great with Kim Jong Un." These summits were hailed by some as a breakthrough, a step toward peace. Yet, despite the historic nature of the meetings, they ultimately failed to produce lasting results. North Korea did not agree to the denuclearization that Trump had hoped for, and the talks stalled.
During this time, many supporters of diplomatic engagement praised the de-escalation of tensions. The spectacle of high-stakes diplomacy, with both leaders willing to meet face-to-face, created an air of optimism. However, as the years passed, it became evident that the promises made at those meetings were not followed through on, leaving much of the world wondering what the next step would be.
Since those initial summits, North Korea has continued to build up its military capabilities, expanding its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic weapons, and short-range missiles that could potentially carry nuclear warheads. This expansion poses a direct threat to the United States mainland and military bases in the region. Additionally, North Korea has reopened its nuclear testing site, and American and South Korean officials are concerned that Kim is ready to resume tests at any moment.
The situation has become even more complicated with the geopolitical shifts in the region. This year, North Korea took a step that many had not anticipated: it signed a mutual defense pact with Russia. Furthermore, North Korea sent thousands of troops to support Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, according to officials in Washington, Seoul, and Kyiv. This move has significantly altered the balance of power in the region and has added new layers of complexity to any potential negotiations with the U.S. Russia, for its part, has been providing North Korea with oil and other imports, and has used its position on the U.N. Security Council to block efforts aimed at extending the mandate of experts monitoring North Korea’s sanctions violations.
Despite these shifts, the question remains: will Trump seek to re-engage with Kim? His camp has not responded to requests for comment on whether he plans to restart talks. However, observers in Seoul and other North Korea experts suggest that Trump might be inclined to try to rekindle discussions with Kim. "Trump feels that his engagement worked well during his first presidency in that he feels that he 'solved' the North Korean nuclear issue," explained Ramon Pacheco Pardo of King’s College London. "Plus, Trump's summits with Kim attracted significant media attention, which he clearly relishes." Trump has long enjoyed the spotlight, and his involvement in high-profile international affairs, like the summits with Kim, certainly satisfied his desire for media attention.
However, the geopolitical landscape that Trump would face today is vastly different from the one he encountered during his first term. North Korea’s growing ties with Russia, combined with the shifting dynamics of the war in Ukraine and the ongoing rise of China, present new challenges. A former Trump administration official, who requested anonymity, noted that "President Trump faces a different geopolitical landscape than in 2021," suggesting that any substantial engagement with North Korea would need to wait until these other issues have been addressed.
From a diplomatic perspective, the growing relationship between North Korea and Russia, along with the unpredictable nature of a potential second Trump administration, has caused concern among officials worldwide. Diplomats from Europe to Asia are now scrambling to figure out how to address this new, complex reality. In Seoul, Duyeon Kim from the Center for a New American Security suggested that North Korea does not seem to care who is in the White House. "Kim has made it clear that Pyongyang will march towards its nuclear milestones, with the backing of China and Russia," Kim said. This indicates that North Korea is unlikely to alter its course based solely on who occupies the Oval Office.
The next question that many are asking is: what could North Korea gain from a renewed dialogue with the United States, particularly under a second Trump presidency? A senior official from South Korea's presidential office remarked that it’s unclear what direction Trump will take in office, especially given the sometimes contradictory nature of his statements during the campaign. In December, Trump denied reports that he was considering a plan to have North Korea freeze, but not eliminate, its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Despite his denials, observers note that Trump’s policies have often been unpredictable, and it remains to be seen what approach he would take in his second term.
There may be a strategic incentive for North Korea to engage with the U.S. at some point. Having good relations with Washington could be key to having some sanctions lifted. North Korea may also want to test the waters to see what Trump might offer, particularly as it relates to the possibility of recognition as a nuclear state. Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and expert on North Korea, suggested that Kim might view engagement with Trump as an opportunity to achieve symbolic victories. "Kim could pitch a peace declaration or treaty to Trump as a major accomplishment, potentially worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize, though it would do nothing to actually reduce the threat to the United States and its allies," Klingner said. Such an agreement could even lay the groundwork for a reduction in U.S. forces stationed in South Korea and Japan, which would be a significant geopolitical shift in the region.
Ultimately, the question of whether Trump will engage with Kim again remains an open one. While the former president has indicated that he believes his previous interactions with North Korea were successful in some respects, the world has changed significantly since then. With North Korea's growing alliance with Russia and the looming threat of continued nuclear advancements, any future negotiations will be far more complex. Whether Trump’s “good relationship” with Kim can bring about new breakthroughs or merely provide the media spectacle he craves remains to be seen, but it’s clear that the next chapter in this high-stakes international drama is sure to be filled with unpredictable twists.
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